Assessment of Lebanon’s failed mobile privatization
Situation
Successive attempts to privatize the Lebanese mobile segment failed to achieve desired results
Mobile sector locked in disputes that slowed progress
Mobile sector performance lagged behind other markets in terms of service and price offerings
Key Issues
Bad decisions
Mismanagement
Loss of investor confidence
Connexus Contribution
Reviewed the history of the sector
Analyzed the sector vis-à-vis benchmarks
Performed regulatory and process due diligence
Financially simulated the different scenarios for the sector and argued that the privatization and liberalization of the mobile market would have generated far more revenues to the Lebanese treasury than the management contract in the medium term
Results
Quantified the cost of the bad decisions that have beset the mobile sector since 1998, most notably the decision to terminate the BOT contracts and the subsequent decisions not to privatize and liberalize but to resort to a management contract
Systematically compared the financial and economic impact of various policy options
Recommended a high level roadmap for the way forward